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The gravest projected effects of the global heating for the UK have been outlined by experts, encompassing a blistering 4C rise in temperatures to a two-metre rise in sea level. A separate possibility predicts a decline of 6C in temperatures following the failure of key Atlantic Ocean currents, which would severely impact agriculture and energy demand.

Possible Extremes, Not Forecasts

These impacts, certain ones are associated with irreversible climate shifts, are seen as unlikely but possible. The researchers explained that these scenarios filled a gap in risk assessment that had left the UK not ready for worst-case results.

"The climate extremes we have outlined aren’t predictions, but they are possible," commented the professor who led the analysis. "Britain has been planning in the absence of the frameworks to plan for extreme possibilities. We've now given planners what they need to get ready for climate outcomes they pray never occur, but dare not dismiss."

A Suite of Extreme Weather Possibilities

A further series of severe models sets out the possible scale of extreme weather between now and the end of the century. These indicate that thermometer readings could rocket in particular seasons by up to 6C higher than historical levels, while rainfall could be three times standard measurements.

The chance of the catastrophic events occurring could not be calculated due to a lack of certainty about what measures will be implemented to tackle climate change and how the planet's climate will behave. This approach was described as similar to security threat evaluations or resilience checks for economic stability.

Major Scenario Highlights

• Severe Heating: Worldwide averages soaring past 4C by 2100 could occur if emissions cuts fails or if strong feedback loops like the Amazon basin becoming a net carbon source emit its enormous store of carbon. This would lead to extreme and prolonged heatwaves and droughts hitting the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A critical sea current, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), is losing strength and losing stability due to ocean warming. A complete failure starting around 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Farming would be severely challenged and freshwater availability would be drastically changed," noted Arnell.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica disintegrate quickly, inundating seaside communities. In contrast to the other scenarios, this threat is already known by coastal engineers.
• Pollution Paradox: Global averages could also be driven up by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is sharply cut. This unexpected result occurs because aerosol particles from industrial activity reflect sunlight from warming the ground.

Preparing for the Worst

These dire projections could be used to inform the construction of critical national infrastructure, including housing developments, power generation facilities and flood defences. Understanding these environmental threats could also hasten the transition to slash carbon pollution.

The analysis created the worst-case scenarios using a mix of real-world events, digital projections and climate physics. These outcomes omit potential global problems including the global food shortages and resource wars.

This work was requested as part of a official adaptation planning initiative. Previous assessments have warned that not enough attention was being paid to high-consequence, low-probability risks.

An independent advisory body has said that the UK needs to "adapt to 2C" and examine the risks for severe warming. Previous adaptation plans have been criticised as being "inadequate" by some observers.

An official statement said: "The climate emergency is at the core of this government’s agenda, both preparing for impacts and establishing itself as a clean energy superpower. It is essential that the UK is prepared for the consequences."