Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.