Daily Homicides in Mexico Fall 37% Under President Sheinbaum, As per Government Statistics

The mean number of per-day killings monthly in the country has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by new official figures. However, security analysts have warned that murder numbers could fail to indicate improved national safety.

Marked Decline in Daily Figures

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September of last year. This information was provided by the director of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that have been recorded during these past months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum stated, explaining that the previous month the smallest amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Violent drug cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's heavily military efforts to combat the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s murder rate soar in the past few years. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate over four times greater than the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security approach for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader said: “There is a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The key elements of the President's security strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Greater coordination between government agencies.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Concerns

But, security researchers urged caution that focusing solely on murder data to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is notably true in light of the rise in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“That would be excellent news if this were a drop, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

Per the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is not reliable for gauging the reality of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the inclination to accurately identify and classify bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month means of daily homicides was additionally problematic because it may obscure days when there were notably spiking numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily mean renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, per official data. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

But notwithstanding these measures, Mexico is still grappling with high violence, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-driven violence. Last month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the past year.

A short time later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and across the country to voice their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.

“The government presents [data] in a way to construct a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” Vargas said.